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71.
A Comparative Analysis of Primary and Extreme Characteristics of Dry or Wet Status between Asia and North America 总被引：1，自引：0，他引：1
In this study, the Palmer Drought Severity Index (PDSI) was used to analyze the average and extreme dry/wet states of Asia and North America from 1953 to 2003. The results indicate that the two continents underwent drying trends during this period. Compared with North America, Asia showed more severe drought trends. However, more significant and regular seasonal variation for drought was found in North America. The driest regions in Asia were located in the northern region of China, Mongolia, and eastern mid-Siberian plateau. Most regions in central North America were relatively wetter than other regions. The northern and southwestern regions of North America, as well as the Atlantic and Pacific coastal areas, experienced the most drought during this period. A sharp increase of the drought area and the number of extreme drought events took place from 1997 to 2003 in both Asia and North America. Severe drought events were more likely to occur during the summer on both continents. Asia had the most extreme drought events during July, but North America reached its highest drought frequency from June to September. In Asia, a persistent increasing trend of extreme drought emerged throughout the studied period. However, a more complex evolution of drought emerged in North America: a decreasing trend appeared before the mid-1960s and an increasing trend appeared after the late 1970s. A relatively steady dry/wet status was observed between the mid-1960s and the late 1970s. The role of exceptional, extreme drought events with respect to the La Nin?a event was considered during 1997–2003. 相似文献
72.
The inland capture fisheries of the Mekong represent critical sources of nutrition in rural diets in a region that faces endemic food and nutritional deficits. However within regional development debates that prioritize utilising the waters of the Mekong to generate electricity, capture fisheries are often presented as ultimately doomed, and therefore as an unfortunate, but necessary trade-off for hydropower. At the heart of these debates, lie contested definitions of development. The notion that fisheries could or should be traded-off for some other form of development exemplifies this tension.This paper draws on anthropological approaches to policy analysis based on discourse and narratives. We begin by placing the conventional wisdom regarding the place of fisheries in regional development under closer scrutiny. We then explore the potential for a counter narrative based around food and food sovereignty, in which fisheries and fishers are drivers, rather than costs of development. We argue that fisheries provide a range of livelihood and developmental values that cannot be replaced and that their management continues to hold potential for strengthening independence and self-reliance. In doing so, we build on empirical evidence from the Lao PDR, a country with a rich capture fishery but also endemic food crises, and also a national policy commitment to both poverty reduction and extensive large-scale hydropower development. As such, this paper attempts to reframe the debate on development in the Mekong. The paper has wider significance for considering how a broader focus on food and food producers can generate alternative development pathways. 相似文献
73.
海温强迫下的东亚夏季大气环流潜在可预报性特征 总被引：2，自引：2，他引：0
利用大气环流模式NCARCAM3,进行22a（1979—2000年）、每年8个初值的集合试验,并采用方差分析方法,研究了观测海温强迫下东亚夏季大气环流的潜在可预报性。结果表明,夏季东亚地区海平面气压场的潜在可预报性总体偏低,在中国区域呈东南高、西北低的分布特征;850hPa纬向风场、对流层500～200hPa平均温度场和500hPa位势高度场在低纬度地区的潜在可预报性明显高于中高纬度地区。500hPa位势高度场的潜在可预报性较高,东亚大部分地区大于0.5,尤其华南地区大于0.7。夏季东亚500hPa位势高度场的潜在可预报性具有明显的年际变化特征,并与夏季南海海温异常关系密切。与正常年份相比,在夏季南海海温偏暖或者偏冷年,东亚500hPa位势高度场的潜在可预报性较高 相似文献
74.
利用1953-2007年NCEP／NCAR再分析逐日海平面气压场资料,统计分析东亚地区北方气旋和南方气旋的时间和地域分布特征。结果表明：南、北气旋活动频数存在明显的年际和年代际变化,伴随着一次全球性的年代际气候跃变,20世纪80年代初期北方气旋活动频数出现了显著的突变。从月际分布可知,5月北方气旋频数最多,8月南方气旋频数最多;春季北方气旋活动频繁,存在着明显的两个高值中心,分另Ij位于蒙古国中部和中国东北地区北部;夏季南方气旋活动频繁,主要集中在中国东部沿海及日本南部海面。南北气旋活动频数的季节变化与大气环流的变化密切相关。相关统计结果可增加对东亚温带气旋活动规律的认识和了解,并为预测和预报提供参考。 相似文献
75.
76.
21个气候模式对东亚夏季环流模拟的评估II:年际变化 总被引：4，自引：2，他引：2
利用欧洲中期天气预报中心的ERA40再分析资料, 评估了参与政府间气候变化专门委员会第四次评估报告的21个全球海气耦合模式对东亚地区夏季大气环流年际变率的模拟能力,结果表明：（1）模式对东亚地区不同要素的年际变率模拟能力整体偏弱, 500 hPa高度场的模拟能力总体优于海平面气压场及850 hPa风场;（2）两大环流系统年际变率的模拟结果评估表明：就相关系数而言,副高强度、面积的模拟能力优于印度低压,多数模式能正确模拟出副高1970s后期增强的趋势;就标准差来看,模式对印度低压、印度低压东伸槽模拟效果相对较好;（3）评估三种季风指数的模拟能力结果显示,环流异常指数模拟效果略好,但多数模式都不能模拟出海陆气压差、经向风、环流异常季风指数的年际变化。 相似文献
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